· Analysis updated 01:41 UTC
Rukh Vynnyky U19 vs SK Metalurh U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.19 expected goals for Rukh Vynnyky U19 and 0.76 for SK Metalurh U19, a combined total of 4.95. That distribution gives Rukh Vynnyky U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 92%, with the draw at 6%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 92% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rukh Vynnyky U19 win
91.5% probability
Expected goals
4.19 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rukh Vynnyky U19 home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SK Metalurh U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rukh Vynnyky U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 92%, against 92% / 6% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.19 goals for Rukh Vynnyky U19 and 0.76 for SK Metalurh U19, a combined 4.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
94%
Double chance X2
9%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–09.1%
- 3–08.7%
- 5–07.6%
- 4–16.9%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Rukh Vynnyky U19
- 2026-09-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Oleksandria U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Lviv U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Obolon' Kyiv U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Veres Rivne U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Karpaty Lviv U19 · 4-1 (W)
SK Metalurh U19
- 2026-09-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon' Kyiv U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Veres Rivne U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Karpaty Lviv U19 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Metalist 1925 U19 · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
U19 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rukh Vynnyky U19 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 21 |
| 2 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | Karpaty Lviv U19 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Livyi Bereh U19 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | LNZ Cherkasy U19 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | Zhytomyr U19 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Shakhtar Donetsk U19 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Oleksandria U19 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Veres Rivne U19 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Obolon' Kyiv U19 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | SK Metalurh U19 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 12 | Metalist 1925 U19 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 13 | Lviv U19 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 14 | Kolos Kovalivka U19 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rukh Vynnyky U19 win, at 91.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 92% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.