· Analysis updated 19:43 UTC
Rukinzo vs Ngozi City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Rukinzo and 1.30 for Ngozi City, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Ngozi City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rukinzo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ngozi City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–08.4%
- 1–28.4%
Recent form
Rukinzo
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Durban City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Durban City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic Star · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Musongati · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-14T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Panthere Noir · 2-1 (W)
Ngozi City
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aigle Noir · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kayanza United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Star · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vital'O · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Young Star · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · Rukinzo 4-2 Ngozi City (Ligue A)
- 2025-08-31T13:00:00.000Z · Rukinzo 3-0 Ngozi City (Ligue A)
- 2025-04-27T11:00:00.000Z · Rukinzo 3-2 Ngozi City (Ligue A)
- 2024-09-08T13:00:00.000Z · Rukinzo 1-1 Ngozi City (Ligue A)
- 2020-05-30T13:30:00.000Z · Rukinzo 4-1 Ngozi City (Ligue A)
- 2019-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · Rukinzo 1-0 Ngozi City (Ligue A)
Ligue A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Vision | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Muzinga | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Rukinzo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Le Messager Ngozi | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Olympic Star | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Aigle Noir | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Ngozi City | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Bumamuru | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Musongati | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Vital'O | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | Inter Star | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Flambeau du Centre | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Never Give Up Academy | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Kayanza United | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Young Star | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -15 | 5 |
| 16 | Panthere Noir | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.