Stade des Grangettes · Analysis updated 08:32 UTC
Rumilly Vallières vs Creteil Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Rumilly Vallières and 1.22 for Creteil, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Rumilly Vallières the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rumilly Vallières win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rumilly Vallières home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Creteil away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rumilly Vallières to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Rumilly Vallières and 1.22 for Creteil, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Rumilly Vallières
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Limonest · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UF Touraine · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hyères · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hauts Lyonnais · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Troyes II · 3-0 (W)
Creteil
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Furiani-Agliani · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Epinal · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Chantilly · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Montlouis · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dieppe · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nimes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Hyères | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Toulon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | UF Touraine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Rumilly Vallières | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
| 6 | Fréjus St-Raphaël | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Hauts Lyonnais | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Troyes II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Chasselay MDA | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Andrézieux | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Priest | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Limonest | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Lyon Duchere | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 14 | Istres | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Bourges Foot 18 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Chateauroux | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Canet Roussillon | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rumilly Vallières win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.