· Analysis updated 00:46 UTC
Rumori Calcio II vs Tartu Welco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Rumori Calcio II and 2.71 for Tartu Welco, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Tartu Welco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tartu Welco win
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 2.71
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rumori Calcio II home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Tartu Welco away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tartu Welco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 17% / 17% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Rumori Calcio II and 2.71 for Tartu Welco, a combined 4.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.5%
- 1–37.7%
- 1–16.3%
- 0–26.2%
- 2–25.8%
Recent form
Rumori Calcio II
- 2026-07-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tartu Welco · 0-12 (L)
- 2023-08-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Olympic · 0-3 (L)
- 2021-07-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FCP Pärnu · 1-4 (L)
- 2020-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kompanii Marjamaa · 1-2 (L)
- 2020-07-29T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lootos · 3-0 (W)
Tartu Welco
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Flora II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kose · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Elva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rumori Calcio II · 12-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tartu Welco win, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.