Gemeentelijk Parkstadion · Analysis updated 16:05 UTC
Rupel Boom vs Tongeren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Rupel Boom and 1.42 for Tongeren, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Rupel Boom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rupel Boom home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tongeren away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rupel Boom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Rupel Boom and 1.42 for Tongeren, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–08.2%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Rupel Boom
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sint-Truiden II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Rotselaar · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nijlen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs De Kempen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Cappellen · 2-1 (W)
Tongeren
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hades · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tempo Overijse · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Eendracht Termien · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Cappellen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bocholt · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - VFV B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tempo Overijse | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Hades | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | De Kempen | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Wilrijk | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Royal Antwerp II | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Diegem Sport | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Racing Mechelen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Eendracht Termien | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Wellen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Rotselaar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Rupel Boom | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 12 | Nijlen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Bocholt | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Tongeren | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Sint-Truiden II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Cappellen | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.