· Analysis updated 19:32 UTC
RUS Binche vs Aywaille Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.36 expected goals for RUS Binche and 0.87 for Aywaille, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives RUS Binche the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
RUS Binche win
70.4% probability
Expected goals
2.36 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RUS Binche home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aywaille away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RUS Binche to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 17% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.36 goals for RUS Binche and 0.87 for Aywaille, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 3–08.6%
- 1–18.1%
Recent form
RUS Binche
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ganshoren · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Entité Manageoise · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aywaille · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs La Calamine · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Mouscronnois · 4-4 (D)
Aywaille
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Eupen II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SG-Tertre-Hautrage · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crossing Schaerbeek · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ostiches · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Eupen · 0-8 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - ACFF table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SG-Tertre-Hautrage | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Crossing Schaerbeek | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Jette | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Stade Mouscronnois | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Huy | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Braine | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 7 | AS Eupen II | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Richelle United | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 9 | Ganshoren | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Ostiches | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | La Calamine | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 12 | RUS Binche | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Stade Verviers | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 14 | Acren-Lessines | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 15 | Stockay-Warfusée | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Entité Manageoise | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | Union Namur | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -21 | 4 |
| 18 | Aywaille | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is RUS Binche win, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.