Gazprom Arena · Referee R. Lutfullin · Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
Russia vs Mali Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Russia and 0.80 for Mali, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Russia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Russia win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Russia home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mali away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Russia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 25% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Russia and 0.80 for Mali, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–011.6%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
Recent form
Russia
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Namibia · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Iran · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Trinidad and Tobago · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Burkina Faso · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Egypt · 0-1 (L)
Mali
- 2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liberia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cape Verde Islands · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Iran · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Russia · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Russia win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.