Rustavi vs Spaeri Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Rustavi and 0.95 for Spaeri, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Rustavi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Rustavi win

57.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.81 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rustavi home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spaeri away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Rustavi win58%

Draw23%

Spaeri win20%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.4%
1–110.9%
2–010.4%
2–19.9%
0–06.3%

Recent form

Rustavi

2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Meshakhte · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spaeri · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Batumi · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 1-1 (D)

Spaeri

2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dila · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rustavi · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Meshakhte · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Batumi · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-01T16:30:00.000Z · Rustavi 3-1 Spaeri (David Kipiani Cup)
2026-05-29T17:00:00.000Z · Rustavi 2-1 Spaeri (Erovnuli Liga)
2026-04-18T17:00:00.000Z · Rustavi 1-1 Spaeri (Erovnuli Liga)
2026-01-29T11:00:00.000Z · Rustavi 2-2 Spaeri (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-11-21T14:00:00.000Z · Rustavi 1-2 Spaeri (Erovnuli Liga 2)
2025-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · Rustavi 2-0 Spaeri (Erovnuli Liga 2)
2025-05-28T13:00:00.000Z · Rustavi 0-0 Spaeri (Erovnuli Liga 2)
2025-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · Rustavi 0-2 Spaeri (Erovnuli Liga 2)
2024-12-01T09:30:00.000Z · Rustavi 2-1 Spaeri (Erovnuli Liga 2)
2024-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · Rustavi 1-3 Spaeri (Erovnuli Liga 2)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rustavi win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.