Edmond Machtens Stadium · Analysis updated 13:24 UTC
RWDM vs Flénu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.01 expected goals for RWDM and 0.92 for Flénu, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives RWDM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
RWDM win
79.1% probability
Expected goals
3.01 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RWDM to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 13% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.01 goals for RWDM and 0.92 for Flénu, a combined 3.93 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 57%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 79% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.9%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 4–06.7%
Recent form
RWDM
Flénu
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Onhaye · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs RWDM · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Seraing United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Verviers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ganshoren · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RWDM | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Rochefort | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Meux | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Tubize | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi II | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Olympic Charleroi | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is RWDM win, at 79.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.