Edmond Machtens Stadium · Analysis updated 14:21 UTC
RWDM vs Habay-la-Neuve Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for RWDM and 0.89 for Habay-la-Neuve, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives RWDM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
RWDM win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Habay-la-Neuve away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RWDM to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for RWDM and 0.89 for Habay-la-Neuve, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
RWDM
Habay-la-Neuve
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Albert Quévy-Mons · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tubize · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Charleroi II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Charleroi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flénu · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rochefort | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Meux | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | RWDM | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Tubize | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Olympic Charleroi | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 12 |
| 9 | Sporting Charleroi II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is RWDM win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.