Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta · Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Sabadell vs Zamora Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Sabadell and 0.75 for Zamora, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Sabadell the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sabadell win
62.5% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sabadell home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zamora away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sabadell to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 22% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Sabadell and 0.75 for Zamora, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 2–012.6%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Sabadell
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Andorra · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta de Vigo II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Oviedo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Mallorca · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 3-2 (W)
Zamora
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Lugo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Arenas Getxo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Play Offs table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celta de Vigo II | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Sabadell | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Zamora | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 4 | Ponferradina | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 5 | Villarreal B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Real Madrid II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 7 | Europa Fc | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 8 | Atlético Madrid II | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sabadell win, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.