Bank Respublika Arena · Analysis updated 21:43 UTC
Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.19 expected goals for Sabah FA and 0.62 for Şamaxı FK, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Sabah FA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sabah FA win
73.6% probability
Expected goals
2.19 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sabah FA home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sabah FA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 17% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.19 goals for Sabah FA and 0.62 for Şamaxı FK, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 41%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.5%
- 1–013.2%
- 3–010.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–18.2%
Recent form
Sabah FA
- 2026-10-20T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Praha · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi Baku · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 3-1 (W)
Şamaxı FK
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sabah FA win, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.