Sabah FA vs Zira Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.11 expected goals for Sabah FA and 0.57 for Zira, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Sabah FA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sabah FA win

73.4% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.11 – 0.57

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sabah FA home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zira away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Sabah FA win73%

Draw18%

Zira win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

27%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

2–015.2%
1–014.4%
3–010.7%
2–18.7%
1–18.2%

Recent form

Sabah FA

2026-10-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi Baku · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Safa Baku · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Zira · 5-0 (W)

Zira

2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Turan · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 0-5 (L)
2026-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-13T16:00:00.000Z · Sabah FA 2-1 Zira (Cup)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · Sabah FA 2-2 Zira (Premyer Liqa)
2026-01-31T13:00:00.000Z · Sabah FA 3-1 Zira (Premyer Liqa)
2025-10-19T12:00:00.000Z · Sabah FA 3-0 Zira (Premyer Liqa)
2025-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · Sabah FA 1-1 Zira (Premyer Liqa)
2025-03-15T15:30:00.000Z · Sabah FA 1-1 Zira (Premyer Liqa)
2024-10-20T13:30:00.000Z · Sabah FA 1-1 Zira (Premyer Liqa)
2024-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · Sabah FA 0-2 Zira (Premyer Liqa)
2024-03-30T15:00:00.000Z · Sabah FA 0-1 Zira (Premyer Liqa)
2024-01-27T13:30:00.000Z · Sabah FA 1-0 Zira (Premyer Liqa)

Premyer Liqa table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Neftchi Baku	7	5	1	1	13	16
2	Sabah FA	6	5	1	0	13	16
3	Qarabag	6	5	1	0	7	16
4	Turan	7	4	2	1	3	14
5	Zira	7	3	2	2	-1	11
6	Kapaz	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	Şamaxı FK	7	2	4	1	2	10
8	Sumqayıt	6	1	2	3	-1	5
9	Qabala	7	1	1	5	-8	4
10	Imisli FK	7	1	1	5	-7	4
11	Safa Baku	7	1	0	6	-10	3
12	Araz	7	0	2	5	-10	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sabah FA win, at 73.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.