· Analysis updated 06:32 UTC
Săcele vs Baicoi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Săcele and 2.45 for Baicoi, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Baicoi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Baicoi win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Baicoi away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Baicoi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 23% / 19% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Săcele and 2.45 for Baicoi, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 71%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.7%
- 1–37.1%
- 1–17.1%
- 2–26.5%
- 0–25.8%
Recent form
Săcele
Baicoi
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpic Zărneşti · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Carpati Covasna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sepsi II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ARO Muscelul Câmpulung · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Sibiu · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corona Braşov | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | ACS Mediaş 2022 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Baicoi | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Olimpic Zărneşti | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Inter Sibiu | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Sepsi II | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | ARO Muscelul Câmpulung | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Valenii de Munte | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Săcele | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Tricolorul Breaza | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
| 11 | Carpati Covasna | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -27 | 1 |
| 12 | Kids Tâmpa Braşov | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Baicoi win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.