ASK Arena · Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
Safa Baku vs Kapaz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Safa Baku and 1.48 for Kapaz, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Kapaz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kapaz win
57.9% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Safa Baku home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kapaz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 16% / 26% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Safa Baku and 1.48 for Kapaz, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 36%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.1%
- 0–213.3%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–111.3%
- 1–28.3%
Recent form
Safa Baku
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Qarabag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi Baku · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 1-0 (W)
Kapaz
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sumqayıt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Qabala · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Turan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kapaz win, at 57.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.