ASK Arena · Analysis updated 14:23 UTC
Safa Baku vs Qabala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Safa Baku and 1.13 for Qabala, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Qabala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Qabala win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Safa Baku home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Qabala to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 24% / 31% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Safa Baku and 1.13 for Qabala, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 28% and both teams to score at 35%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.7%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–210.0%
Recent form
Safa Baku
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Qarabag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi Baku · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 1-0 (W)
Qabala
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · Safa Baku 1-0 Qabala (Premyer Liqa)
- 2025-12-04T11:00:00.000Z · Safa Baku 1-2 Qabala (Cup)
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Qabala win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.