ASK Arena · Referee N. Ismayilli · Analysis updated 13:59 UTC
Safa Baku vs Sabah FA Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.40 expected goals for Safa Baku and 2.08 for Sabah FA, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Sabah FA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sabah FA win
77.2% probability
Expected goals
0.40 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Safa Baku home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sabah FA away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sabah FA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 6% / 17% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.40 goals for Safa Baku and 2.08 for Sabah FA, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
94%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–218.1%
- 0–117.4%
- 0–312.6%
- 0–08.4%
- 1–27.2%
Recent form
Safa Baku
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Qarabag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi Baku · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 1-0 (W)
Sabah FA
- 2026-10-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi Baku · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Safa Baku · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Zira · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sabah FA win, at 77.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.