· Analysis updated 17:56 UTC
Safa vs Al Ansar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Safa and 1.15 for Al Ansar, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Safa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.1% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Safa home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ansar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Safa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Safa and 1.15 for Al Ansar, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–07.9%
Recent form
Safa
- 2026-07-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Mabarrah · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Jwaaya FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahed · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Reyady Abaseya · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-06-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Sahel · 1-0 (W)
Al Ansar
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittihad · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hikma · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Nejmeh · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Jwaaya FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahed · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Nejmeh | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Al Ansar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Safa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Tadamon Sour | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Ahed | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Tripoli SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Al Mabarrah | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Jwaaya FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Al Hikma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Reyady Abaseya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Shabab Al Sahel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Al Akhaa Al Ahli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.