· Analysis updated 18:05 UTC
Şagadam vs Merw Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Şagadam and 1.05 for Merw, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Şagadam the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Şagadam win
53.3% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Şagadam home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Merw away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Şagadam to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Şagadam and 1.05 for Merw, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Şagadam
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Merw · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Altyn Asyr · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ahal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Arkadag · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Köpetdag Aşgabat · 3-2 (W)
Merw
- 2026-08-06T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Arkadag · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-06-20T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Şagadam · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Köpetdag Aşgabat · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Altyn Asyr · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Aşgabat · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ýokary Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 72 |
| 2 | Altyn Asyr | 21 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 47 |
| 3 | Ahal | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 42 |
| 4 | Şagadam | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -16 | 22 |
| 5 | Nebitci | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -18 | 22 |
| 6 | Merw | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -36 | 18 |
| 7 | Aşgabat | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 15 |
| 8 | Köpetdag Aşgabat | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -30 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Şagadam win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.