· Analysis updated 08:00 UTC
Sagaing United vs Hantharwady United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sagaing United and 1.65 for Hantharwady United, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Sagaing United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.4% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sagaing United home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hantharwady United away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.0%
Recent form
Sagaing United
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dagon · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs GFA · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T09:00:00.000Z · A vs I.S.P.E · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangon United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-17T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Ayeyawady United · 2-1 (W)
Hantharwady United
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Yadanarbon · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Shan United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Thitsar Arman · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Dagon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Shan United · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-15T09:00:00.000Z · Sagaing United 0-0 Hantharwady United (National League)
- 2025-12-31T09:30:00.000Z · Sagaing United 2-2 Hantharwady United (National League)
- 2024-10-19T09:30:00.000Z · Sagaing United 2-3 Hantharwady United (National League)
- 2024-09-07T09:30:00.000Z · Sagaing United 2-3 Hantharwady United (National League)
- 2023-11-01T09:30:00.000Z · Sagaing United 0-3 Hantharwady United (National League)
- 2023-06-01T09:30:00.000Z · Sagaing United 3-2 Hantharwady United (National League)
- 2022-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · Sagaing United 0-3 Hantharwady United (National League)
- 2022-07-02T08:30:00.000Z · Sagaing United 1-0 Hantharwady United (National League)
- 2020-09-11T09:00:00.000Z · Sagaing United 0-4 Hantharwady United (National League)
- 2020-02-23T09:00:00.000Z · Sagaing United 0-1 Hantharwady United (National League)
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dagon | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 |
| 2 | Yangon Royals | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Shan United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 4 | Yadanarbon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Yangon United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Thitsar Arman | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | I.S.P.E | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Sagaing United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Hantharwady United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Ayeyawady United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 | GFA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 12 | Myawady | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.