· Analysis updated 17:38 UTC
Sagaing United vs Yangon United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sagaing United and 2.28 for Yangon United, a combined total of 3.86. That distribution gives Yangon United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yangon United win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 2.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sagaing United home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Yangon United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.7%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.6%
- 2–16.0%
Recent form
Sagaing United
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dagon · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs GFA · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T09:00:00.000Z · A vs I.S.P.E · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangon United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-17T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Ayeyawady United · 2-1 (W)
Yangon United
- 2026-09-08T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Ezra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs GFA · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagaing United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dagon · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-03-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yadanarbon · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · Sagaing United 0-2 Yangon United (National League)
- 2026-02-25T09:00:00.000Z · Sagaing United 0-2 Yangon United (National League)
- 2026-01-06T09:00:00.000Z · Sagaing United 0-4 Yangon United (National League)
- 2025-01-11T09:30:00.000Z · Sagaing United 2-2 Yangon United (National League)
- 2024-07-27T09:00:00.000Z · Sagaing United 0-1 Yangon United (National League)
- 2023-12-10T09:30:00.000Z · Sagaing United 1-0 Yangon United (National League)
- 2023-05-26T09:15:00.000Z · Sagaing United 0-4 Yangon United (National League)
- 2022-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · Sagaing United 0-3 Yangon United (National League)
- 2022-07-24T08:30:00.000Z · Sagaing United 0-5 Yangon United (National League)
- 2020-09-04T09:00:00.000Z · Sagaing United 1-3 Yangon United (National League)
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yangon Royals | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Dagon | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 |
| 3 | Yadanarbon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Shan United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Yangon United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Thitsar Arman | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | I.S.P.E | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Hantharwady United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Sagaing United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 10 | Ayeyawady United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 11 | GFA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 12 | Myawady | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yangon United win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.