Sagamihara Gion Stadium · Analysis updated 05:26 UTC
Sagamihara vs Roasso Kumamoto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Sagamihara and 0.93 for Roasso Kumamoto, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Sagamihara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.7% probability
Expected goals
0.96 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sagamihara home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Roasso Kumamoto away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.0%
- 1–014.5%
- 0–114.0%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–07.0%
Recent form
Sagamihara
- 2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gifu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Biwako Shiga · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Kamatamare Sanuki · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Osaka · 1-0 (W)
Roasso Kumamoto
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainare Tottori · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagamihara · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · Sagamihara 0-0 Roasso Kumamoto (J3 League)
- 2026-06-06T05:00:00.000Z · Sagamihara 3-0 Roasso Kumamoto (J2/J3 League)
- 2020-10-25T06:00:00.000Z · Sagamihara 1-0 Roasso Kumamoto (J3 League)
- 2020-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · Sagamihara 0-2 Roasso Kumamoto (J3 League)
- 2019-11-24T04:00:00.000Z · Sagamihara 1-0 Roasso Kumamoto (J3 League)
- 2019-04-07T04:00:00.000Z · Sagamihara 3-2 Roasso Kumamoto (J3 League)
J3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 26 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 26 |
| 4 | Osaka | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Roasso Kumamoto | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 6 | Nara Club | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| 7 | FC Gifu | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 22 |
| 8 | Sagamihara | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 9 | FC Ryukyu | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 10 | Kanazawa | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Kitakyushu | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 15 |
| 14 | Fukushima United | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -3 | 14 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 16 | Tochigi SC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 17 | Biwako Shiga | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -10 | 8 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -23 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.