Ekimae Real Estate Stadium · Referee K. Fukushima · Analysis updated 16:09 UTC
Sagan Tosu vs Iwaki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Sagan Tosu and 1.03 for Iwaki, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Sagan Tosu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sagan Tosu win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sagan Tosu home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Iwaki away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sagan Tosu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Sagan Tosu and 1.03 for Iwaki, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Sagan Tosu
- 2026-10-04T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Blaublitz Akita · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tokyo Verdy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Montedio Yamagata · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Vissel Kobe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Iwaki · 1-3 (L)
Iwaki
- 2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Consadole Sapporo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Vegalta Sendai · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagan Tosu · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 2 | Omiya Ardija | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Albirex Niigata | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 4 | Kataller Toyama | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Yokohama FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Oita Trinita | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Fujieda MYFC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Blaublitz Akita | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Jubilo Iwata | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Tokushima Vortis | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Montedio Yamagata | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 14 | Iwaki | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Sagan Tosu | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Tochigi City | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 10 |
| 17 | Imabari | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 18 | Ventforet Kofu | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 19 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 20 | Consadole Sapporo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sagan Tosu win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.