· Analysis updated 11:38 UTC
Saguntino vs Utiel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Saguntino and 0.83 for Utiel, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Saguntino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Saguntino home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Utiel away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Saguntino to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 32% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Saguntino and 0.83 for Utiel, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.1%
- 1–016.1%
- 0–113.3%
- 1–113.3%
- 2–08.1%
Recent form
Saguntino
- 2026-10-25T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Torrellano · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Torrevieja · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Utiel · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Crevillente · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 0-4 (L)
Utiel
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Saguntino · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Roda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Soneja · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Acero · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal III | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | Levante II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Vall de Uxó | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Hércules II | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Acero | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Torrent | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Eldense B | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Crevillente | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Roda | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Atzeneta | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Saguntino | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Buñol | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | SC Torrevieja | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | Ontinyent 1931 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Torrellano | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Soneja | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Jove Español | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Utiel | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.