· Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Saham vs Al Nasr Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Saham and 1.09 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Al Nasr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
75.1% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Saham home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Nasr away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Nasr to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 25% / 32% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Saham and 1.09 for Al Nasr, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.4%
- 0–016.0%
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–29.5%
Recent form
Saham
- 2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Fanja · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:05:00.000Z · H vs Sur · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T14:25:00.000Z · A vs Al-Shabab · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Musannah · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T13:35:00.000Z · A vs Al-Nahda · 1-1 (D)
Al Nasr
- 2026-10-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Smail · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-25T13:20:00.000Z · A vs Fanja · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Bahla · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Musannah · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Dhofar · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Professional League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 75.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.