· Analysis updated 15:24 UTC
Şahdağ vs Baku Sportinq Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.23 expected goals for Şahdağ and 0.51 for Baku Sportinq, a combined total of 3.74. That distribution gives Şahdağ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Şahdağ win
88.5% probability
Expected goals
3.23 – 0.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Baku Sportinq away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Şahdağ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 89%, against 89% / 8% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.23 goals for Şahdağ and 0.51 for Baku Sportinq, a combined 3.74 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 38%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
12%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–013.3%
- 2–012.4%
- 4–010.7%
- 1–07.7%
- 5–06.9%
Recent form
Şahdağ
Baku Sportinq
- 2026-09-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Səbail · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zaqatala · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Karvan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Şahdağ · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaqatala · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Birinci Dasta table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cəbrayıl | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Şahdağ | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | MOIK | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Səbail | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Karvan | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Şimal | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Zaqatala | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -15 | 4 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Şahdağ win, at 88.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.