· Analysis updated 14:17 UTC
Şahdağ vs Səbail Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Şahdağ and 0.73 for Səbail, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Şahdağ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Şahdağ win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Səbail away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Şahdağ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 28% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Şahdağ and 0.73 for Səbail, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 39%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.8%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–011.6%
- 0–18.9%
Recent form
Şahdağ
Səbail
- 2026-10-21T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Şahdağ · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaqatala · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Karvan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Baku Sportinq · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Mingəçevir · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Birinci Dasta table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Səbail | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Karvan | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | MOIK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Zaqatala | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Şimal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Şahdağ win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.