· Analysis updated 05:22 UTC
Şahdağ vs Zaqatala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Şahdağ and 0.58 for Zaqatala, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Şahdağ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Şahdağ win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zaqatala away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Şahdağ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 25% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for Şahdağ and 0.58 for Zaqatala, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 35%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.3%
- 2–014.4%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–18.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 65.1% vs market 52.2%, edge +12.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 52.2% | 65.1% | 1.54 | +12.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.10 | 85.4% | 86.5% | 1.16 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.50 | 37.6% | 38.4% | 2.60 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 24.7% | 24.9% | 4.02 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.44 | 61.7% | 61.6% | 1.62 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 6.50 | 13.7% | 13.5% | 7.41 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.0% | 75.1% | 1.33 | -1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 47.8% | 34.9% | 2.87 | -12.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Şahdağ
Zaqatala
- 2026-09-16T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Karvan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Baku Sportinq · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mingəçevir · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-22T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Baku Sportinq · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Birinci Dasta table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cəbrayıl | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Şahdağ | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | MOIK | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Səbail | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Karvan | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Şimal | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Zaqatala | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -15 | 4 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Şahdağ win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.