· Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
Saint Etienne vs FC Sion Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.37 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives Saint Etienne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Saint Etienne win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Saint Etienne home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Sion away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Saint Etienne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 21% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Saint Etienne and 1.37 for FC Sion, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–06.8%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
Saint Etienne
- 2026-10-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nantes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs RED Star FC 93 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodez · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Sion · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Metz · 2-2 (D)
FC Sion
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cham · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Servette FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Etienne · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Zurich · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Saint Etienne win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.