· Analysis updated 13:44 UTC
Saint Etienne vs Lausanne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 2.40 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Lausanne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lausanne win
62.8% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 2.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Saint Etienne home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lausanne away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lausanne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 19% / 19% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Saint Etienne and 2.40 for Lausanne, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–17.8%
- 1–37.5%
- 0–27.5%
- 0–16.2%
Recent form
Saint Etienne
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Metz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunkerque · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Montpellier · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grenoble · 4-0 (W)
Lausanne
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Lugano · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Servette FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Vaduz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Thun · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Zurich · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lausanne win, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.