· Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
Saint Etienne vs Venezia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 2.58 for Venezia, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Venezia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Venezia win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 2.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Saint Etienne home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Venezia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Venezia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 22% / 18% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Saint Etienne and 2.58 for Venezia, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.3%
- 1–37.1%
- 1–16.5%
- 2–26.4%
- 2–35.5%
Recent form
Saint Etienne
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Metz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunkerque · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Montpellier · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grenoble · 4-0 (W)
Venezia
- 2026-10-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lazio · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · Saint Etienne 4-3 Venezia (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Venezia win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.