Saint-Malo vs Stade Briochin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Saint-Malo and 0.97 for Stade Briochin, a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives Saint-Malo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

71.9% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.29 – 0.97

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Saint-Malo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Saint-Malo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Saint-Malo and 0.97 for Stade Briochin, a combined 2.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

Saint-Malo win44%

Draw28%

Stade Briochin win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.5%
1–113.1%
0–010.5%
0–110.2%
2–08.7%

Recent form

Saint-Malo

2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saumur · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Granville · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint-Colomban Locminé · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Briochin · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 4-0 (W)

Stade Briochin

2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint-Colomban Locminé · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Versailles · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Quevilly · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National 2 - Group B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Angoulême	7	5	2	0	7	17
2	Bayonne	7	5	1	1	6	16
3	Avranches	7	4	2	1	7	14
4	Lorient II	7	4	0	3	6	12
5	Granville	7	3	2	2	0	11
6	Dinan Léhon	7	3	2	2	0	11
7	Saint-Malo	7	3	2	2	3	11
8	Stade Briochin	7	2	4	1	2	10
9	Le Poiré sur Vie	7	3	0	4	-1	9
10	Tarbes	7	2	3	2	-1	9
11	Saint-Colomban Locminé	7	2	2	3	0	8
12	Les Herbiers	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Saumur	7	2	1	4	-5	7
14	Pontivy GSI	7	0	4	3	-5	4
15	Châteaubriant	7	0	4	3	-7	4
16	Chauray	7	0	1	6	-10	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.