Stade de Marville · Referee M. Dru · Analysis updated 20:48 UTC
Saint-Malo W vs FC Fleury 91 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Saint-Malo W and 1.47 for FC Fleury 91 W, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Saint-Malo W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Saint-Malo W home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
FC Fleury 91 W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Saint-Malo W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 24% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Saint-Malo W and 1.47 for FC Fleury 91 W, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.9%
- 1–07.4%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Saint-Malo W
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nantes W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Fleury 91 W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Montpellier W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg W · 2-3 (L)
FC Fleury 91 W
- 2026-05-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint-Étienne W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-03-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-21T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon W · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Feminine Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 18 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Paris FC W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Marseille W | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 9 |
| 5 | Nantes W | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Le Havre W | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | Strasbourg W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Montpellier W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | FC Fleury 91 W | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 5 |
| 10 | Saint-Malo W | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 | Lens W | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 2 |
| 12 | Toulouse W | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.