Stade Jacques Joly · Analysis updated 06:23 UTC
Saint-Priest vs Toulon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Saint-Priest and 1.42 for Toulon, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Toulon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Toulon win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Saint-Priest home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Toulon away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toulon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 27% / 27% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Saint-Priest and 1.42 for Toulon, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.7%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–08.9%
Recent form
Saint-Priest
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Limonest · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs UF Touraine · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hyères · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hauts Lyonnais · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Troyes II · 1-3 (L)
Toulon
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Troyes II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon Duchere · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fréjus St-Raphaël · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Canet Roussillon · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bourges Foot 18 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nimes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Hyères | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Toulon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | UF Touraine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Rumilly Vallières | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
| 6 | Fréjus St-Raphaël | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Hauts Lyonnais | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Troyes II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Chasselay MDA | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Andrézieux | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Priest | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Limonest | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Lyon Duchere | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 14 | Istres | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Bourges Foot 18 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Chateauroux | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Canet Roussillon | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Toulon win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.