Saipa vs Shahrdari Noshahr Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Saipa and 0.50 for Shahrdari Noshahr, a combined total of 1.38. That distribution gives Saipa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 38%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 23% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

80.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.88 – 0.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Saipa home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shahrdari Noshahr away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Saipa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 38% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Saipa and 0.50 for Shahrdari Noshahr, a combined 1.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Saipa win43%

Draw38%

Shahrdari Noshahr win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

62%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals40%

Over 2.5 goals16%

Over 3.5 goals5%

Both teams to score23%

Correct score

0–025.3%
1–022.1%
0–112.6%
1–111.1%
2–09.7%

Recent form

Saipa

2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Naft Bandar Abbas · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Navad Urmia · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Shahrdari Noshahr · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-27T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Fard Alborz · 1-2 (L)
2026-06-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ario Eslamshahr · 1-0 (W)

Shahrdari Noshahr

2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Mes Soongoun · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Niroye Zamini · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Saipa · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-27T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Mes Kerman · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanat Naft · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-02T15:00:00.000Z · Saipa 1-0 Shahrdari Noshahr (Azadegan League)
2025-12-13T10:30:00.000Z · Saipa 1-0 Shahrdari Noshahr (Azadegan League)
2025-03-17T15:30:00.000Z · Saipa 0-1 Shahrdari Noshahr (Azadegan League)
2024-10-29T13:00:00.000Z · Saipa 1-0 Shahrdari Noshahr (Azadegan League)

Azadegan League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mes Rafsanjan	6	4	2	0	6	14
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	6	4	2	0	4	14
3	Ario Eslamshahr	6	4	0	2	4	12
4	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	6	3	3	0	3	12
5	Saipa	6	3	1	2	1	10
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	6	2	2	2	2	8
7	Fard Alborz	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	Mes Soongoun	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	6	2	1	3	1	7
10	Novin Ahvaz	6	1	4	1	0	7
11	Naft Gachsaran	6	1	3	2	0	6
12	Shahin Bandar Ameri	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Naft Bandar Abbas	6	1	3	2	-4	6
14	Niroye Zamini	6	1	1	4	-5	4
15	Mes Kerman	6	0	3	3	-3	3
16	Havadar	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 80.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 23% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.

A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.