Sakaryaspor vs Çorum FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Sakaryaspor and 1.53 for Çorum FK, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Sakaryaspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sakaryaspor win

45.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.86 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sakaryaspor home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Çorum FK away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sakaryaspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 22% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Sakaryaspor and 1.53 for Çorum FK, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sakaryaspor win46%

Draw22%

Çorum FK win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.6%
2–18.9%
1–27.3%
2–26.8%
1–06.3%

Recent form

Sakaryaspor

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs İskenderunspor · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arit Kayadibi · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kırklarelispor · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kütahyaspor · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor · 3-1 (W)

Çorum FK

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gaziantep FK · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alanyaspor · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Samsunspor · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eyüpspor · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 2-6 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bursaspor	12	9	1	2	15	28
2	Kayserispor	12	8	3	1	17	27
3	Iğdır FK	12	8	2	2	8	26
4	Batman Petrolspor	12	7	2	3	4	23
5	Keçiörengücü	12	5	5	2	8	20
6	Muğlaspor	12	4	6	2	4	18
7	Mardin 1969	11	5	3	3	4	18
8	Antalyaspor	12	6	0	6	-1	18
9	Bodrum FK	12	4	5	3	4	17
10	Fatih Karagümrük	12	4	4	4	1	16
11	Sarıyer	12	4	4	4	-3	16
12	Bandırmaspor	12	3	5	4	7	14
13	Ümraniyespor	11	3	4	4	3	13
14	Sivasspor	12	2	7	3	-3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	12	2	6	4	-4	12
16	Pendikspor	12	2	5	5	-9	11
17	Manisa F.K.	11	2	4	5	-2	10
18	Vanspor FK	12	3	3	6	-9	10
19	İstanbulspor	12	1	2	9	-22	5
20	Boluspor	11	0	1	10	-22	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sakaryaspor win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.