Saku staadion · Analysis updated 10:11 UTC
Saku Sporting vs FC Tallinn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.84 expected goals for Saku Sporting and 1.45 for FC Tallinn, a combined total of 4.29. That distribution gives Saku Sporting the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Saku Sporting win
66.2% probability
Expected goals
2.84 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Saku Sporting home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Tallinn away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Saku Sporting to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 16% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.84 goals for Saku Sporting and 1.45 for FC Tallinn, a combined 4.29 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 3–17.6%
- 2–25.8%
- 1–15.7%
- 2–05.5%
Recent form
Saku Sporting
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kuressaare · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Legion · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-09-03T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Tallinna FC Zapoos · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-07-31T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kompanii Marjamaa · 3-2 (W)
FC Tallinn
- 2026-10-24T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme Kalju II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tartu Welco · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-10-10T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Flora II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Laagri · 0-10 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Saku Sporting win, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.