· Analysis updated 21:42 UTC
Saku Sporting vs Legion Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.79 expected goals for Saku Sporting and 1.10 for Legion, a combined total of 3.89. That distribution gives Saku Sporting the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Saku Sporting win
72.4% probability
Expected goals
2.79 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Saku Sporting home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Legion away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Saku Sporting to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 15% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.79 goals for Saku Sporting and 1.10 for Legion, a combined 3.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–07.4%
- 1–16.3%
Recent form
Saku Sporting
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Legion · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-09-03T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Tallinna FC Zapoos · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-07-31T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kompanii Marjamaa · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-06-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Raplamaa · 5-1 (W)
Legion
- 2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Levadia U19 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Narva U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · 0-12 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs JK Tabasalu · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Tartu Kalev · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Saku Sporting win, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.