· Analysis updated 16:36 UTC
Salamanca II vs La Virgen del Camino Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Salamanca II and 1.70 for La Virgen del Camino, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives La Virgen del Camino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
La Virgen del Camino win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Salamanca II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
La Virgen del Camino away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates La Virgen del Camino to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 28% / 24% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Salamanca II and 1.70 for La Virgen del Camino, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.9%
Recent form
Salamanca II
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Colegios Diocesanos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Villaralbo · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Arandina · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs La Virgen del Camino · 1-2 (L)
La Virgen del Camino
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Calasanz de Soria · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mojados · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Almazán · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Palencia CF · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burgos Promesas | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | UD Santa Marta | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Atlético Mansillés | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Cristo Atlético | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Cultural Leonesa II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Arandina | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Almazán | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Palencia CF | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Calasanz de Soria | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Villaralbo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Salamanca II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 14 | Guijuelo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Turégano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Unionistas II | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 2 |
| 17 | Mirandés II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Colegios Diocesanos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is La Virgen del Camino win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.