· Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Salamanca UDS and 1.30 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Salamanca UDS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Salamanca UDS home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Celta Vigo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Salamanca UDS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Salamanca UDS and 1.30 for Celta Vigo, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–17.3%
Recent form
Salamanca UDS
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs RSD Alcalá · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Conquense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Derio · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Caudal · 3-2 (W)
Celta Vigo
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Elche · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa del Rey table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pinatar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| 2 | Anaitasuna | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Lebrijana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 4 | Prat | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Atletico Calatayud | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Auriense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Alcazar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Hortaleza | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Ribadesella CF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Maracena | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Tavernes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Talayuela | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Güímar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Noja | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Baztán | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | CD San Jose | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | San Rafael | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Ceuta 6 de Junio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 19 | Tedeón | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 | Atlético Melilla | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.