Salamanca UDS vs Getafe II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Salamanca UDS and 2.00 for Getafe II, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Salamanca UDS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Salamanca UDS win

49.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.50 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Salamanca UDS home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Getafe II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Salamanca UDS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 19% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Salamanca UDS and 2.00 for Getafe II, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Salamanca UDS win50%

Draw19%

Getafe II win32%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals66%

Both teams to score79%

Correct score

2–16.9%
2–26.9%
3–15.8%
3–25.8%
1–15.6%

Recent form

Salamanca UDS

2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs RSD Alcalá · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Conquense · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Derio · 5-3 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Caudal · 3-2 (W)

Getafe II

2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Ávila · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs CF Talavera · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca UDS · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Conquense · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-28T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrejón · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · Salamanca UDS 1-0 Getafe II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Conquense	6	4	1	1	7	13
2	A Madrid III	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Numancia	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Salamanca UDS	6	4	0	2	3	12
5	CF Talavera	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Real Valladolid II	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	SS Reyes	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Guadalajara	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Gimnástica Segoviana	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	2	1	3	0	7
12	Real Ávila	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Tordesillas	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Atlético Paso	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calvo Sotelo	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Albacete II	6	1	2	3	-12	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	0	4	2	-3	4
18	Getafe II	6	0	3	3	-5	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Salamanca UDS win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.