Salamanca UDS vs Gimnástica Segoviana Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Salamanca UDS and 1.63 for Gimnástica Segoviana, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Salamanca UDS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Salamanca UDS home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Salamanca UDS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 23% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Salamanca UDS and 1.63 for Gimnástica Segoviana, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Salamanca UDS win42%

Draw23%

Gimnástica Segoviana win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.6%
2–18.5%
1–27.8%
2–26.9%
1–05.9%

Recent form

Salamanca UDS

2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs RSD Alcalá · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Conquense · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Derio · 5-3 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Caudal · 3-2 (W)

Gimnástica Segoviana

2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Reyes · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RSD Alcalá · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Conquense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvo Sotelo · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Conquense	6	4	1	1	7	13
2	A Madrid III	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Numancia	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Salamanca UDS	6	4	0	2	3	12
5	CF Talavera	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Real Valladolid II	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	SS Reyes	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Guadalajara	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Gimnástica Segoviana	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	2	1	3	0	7
12	Real Ávila	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Tordesillas	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Atlético Paso	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calvo Sotelo	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Albacete II	6	1	2	3	-12	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	0	4	2	-3	4
18	Getafe II	6	0	3	3	-5	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.