· Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Salcedo vs Jarabacoa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.64 expected goals for Salcedo and 0.49 for Jarabacoa, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Salcedo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Salcedo win
82.9% probability
Expected goals
2.64 – 0.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Salcedo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jarabacoa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Salcedo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 12% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.64 goals for Salcedo and 0.49 for Jarabacoa, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.2%
- 3–013.3%
- 1–011.5%
- 4–08.8%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Salcedo
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlántico · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Vega Real · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Moca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Del Este · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad O&M · 2-1 (W)
Jarabacoa
- 2026-10-23T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad O&M · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-17T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Moca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Del Este · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlántico · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cibao · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · Salcedo 2-0 Jarabacoa (Liga Mayor)
- 2025-11-08T20:00:00.000Z · Salcedo 0-0 Jarabacoa (Liga Mayor)
- 2025-08-23T20:00:00.000Z · Salcedo 1-0 Jarabacoa (Liga Mayor)
- 2025-03-02T20:00:00.000Z · Salcedo 1-0 Jarabacoa (Copa LDF)
Liga Mayor table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 29 |
| 2 | Cibao | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Vega Real | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 4 | Delfines Del Este | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Moca | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Universidad O&M | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Jarabacoa | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 5 |
| 8 | Atlántico | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -27 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Salcedo win, at 82.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.