· Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Salernitana U19 vs Perugia U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Salernitana U19 and 3.50 for Perugia U19, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Perugia U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 87%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 87% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Perugia U19 win
87.0% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 3.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Salernitana U19 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Perugia U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
13%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
96%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–310.2%
- 0–48.9%
- 0–28.7%
- 1–37.6%
- 1–46.7%
Recent form
Salernitana U19
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Palermo U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Pescara U19 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Benevento U19 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Perugia U19 · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Latina U19 · 1-4 (L)
Perugia U19
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone U19 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Palermo U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Avellino U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Salernitana U19 · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monopoli U19 · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · Salernitana U19 0-6 Perugia U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · Salernitana U19 1-3 Perugia U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
- 2025-12-13T13:30:00.000Z · Salernitana U19 0-1 Perugia U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
- 2025-04-28T09:00:00.000Z · Salernitana U19 2-3 Perugia U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
- 2024-11-02T13:30:00.000Z · Salernitana U19 2-2 Perugia U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
- 2024-04-27T13:00:00.000Z · Salernitana U19 2-2 Perugia U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
- 2023-11-04T10:30:00.000Z · Salernitana U19 0-3 Perugia U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
- 2023-04-01T14:00:00.000Z · Salernitana U19 2-2 Perugia U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
- 2022-11-12T10:00:00.000Z · Salernitana U19 1-2 Perugia U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
- 2022-02-26T10:00:00.000Z · Salernitana U19 1-4 Perugia U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
Campionato Primavera - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renate U19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 1 | Catanzaro U19 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Sampdoria U19 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Perugia U19 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 15 |
| 3 | Vicenza U19 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Palermo U19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Cremonese U19 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Benevento U19 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 13 |
| 5 | Venezia U19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Monopoli U19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Udinese U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Pescara U19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Padova U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Bari U19 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 8 | Virtus Entella U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Avellino U19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Lecco U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Latina U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Cittadella U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Napoli U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Brescia U19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 11 | Pisa U19 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Mantova U19 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Spezia U19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Modena U19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Frosinone U19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -14 | 4 |
| 14 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Ascoli U19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
| 15 | Sudtirol U19 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Cosenza U19 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
| 16 | Reggiana U19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 16 | Salernitana U19 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Perugia U19 win, at 87.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.