Salgótarjáni BTC vs Ózd Sajóvölgye Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Salgótarjáni BTC and 2.33 for Ózd Sajóvölgye, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Ózd Sajóvölgye the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Ózd Sajóvölgye win

72.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.78 – 2.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Salgótarjáni BTC home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ózd Sajóvölgye away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ózd Sajóvölgye to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 11% / 17% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Salgótarjáni BTC and 2.33 for Ózd Sajóvölgye, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Salgótarjáni BTC win11%

Draw17%

Ózd Sajóvölgye win72%

Double chance 1X

28%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

89%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

0–212.2%
0–110.5%
0–39.4%
1–29.4%
1–18.1%

Recent form

Salgótarjáni BTC

2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs DEAC · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Füzesabony · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarpa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Diósgyőr II · 0-1 (L)

Ózd Sajóvölgye

2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Diósgyőr II · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hajdúnánás · 9-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mátészalka · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gödöllő · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Emodi · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NB III - Northeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ózd Sajóvölgye	13	11	0	2	31	33
2	Cigand SE	13	10	2	1	25	32
3	DEAC	13	8	2	3	14	26
4	Debrecen II	13	8	1	4	10	25
5	Gödöllő	13	7	1	5	8	22
6	Kisvárda II	13	5	6	2	6	21
7	Mátészalka	13	5	5	3	6	20
8	Diósgyőr II	13	5	4	4	3	19
9	Tiszaújváros	13	5	2	6	-3	17
10	Füzesabony	13	5	2	6	-3	17
11	Eger	13	5	2	6	-12	17
12	Salgótarjáni BTC	13	4	0	9	-11	12
13	Tiszafuredi VSE	12	3	1	8	-12	10
14	Hajdúnánás	12	3	1	8	-18	10
15	Tarpa	13	3	0	10	-20	9
16	Nyiregyhaza II	13	1	1	11	-24	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ózd Sajóvölgye win, at 72.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.