· Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
Salgueiros vs Estrela Calheta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Salgueiros and 0.63 for Estrela Calheta, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Salgueiros the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Salgueiros win
55.2% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Salgueiros home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estrela Calheta away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Salgueiros to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 28% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Salgueiros and 0.63 for Estrela Calheta, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.6%
- 0–013.5%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–18.5%
Recent form
Salgueiros
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Feirense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cinfães · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Machico · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sousense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanjoanense · 1-1 (D)
Estrela Calheta
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Castro Daire · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cinfães · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vianense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ovarense · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Machico · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Machico | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | Camacha | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Castro Daire | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Sanjoanense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Salgueiros | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Florgrade | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Cinfães | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | União Lamas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Estrela Calheta | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Beira-Mar | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Alpendorada | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Guarda | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Sousense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Salgueiros win, at 55.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.