Salisbury vs Dorking Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Salisbury and 1.15 for Dorking Wanderers, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Salisbury the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Salisbury win

57.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.01 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Salisbury home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dorking Wanderers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Salisbury to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.01 goals for Salisbury and 1.15 for Dorking Wanderers, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Salisbury win57%

Draw21%

Dorking Wanderers win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.8%
2–08.6%
1–08.5%
3–16.6%

Recent form

Salisbury

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farnham Town · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dulwich Hamlet · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Folkestone Invicta · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Taunton Town · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Truro City · 1-0 (W)

Dorking Wanderers

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dover · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chatham Town · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Braintree · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Southall · 5-4 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southall · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League - South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	12	8	1	3	9	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	9	6	3	0	16	21
3	Salisbury	11	6	3	2	12	21
4	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	11	21
5	Truro City	11	6	3	2	9	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	6	2	4	10	20
7	Dagenham & Redbridge	12	6	2	4	1	20
8	Weston-super-Mare	12	5	3	4	3	18
9	Dover	11	5	3	3	1	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	4	5	2	6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	5	2	4	1	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	4	4	4	4	16
13	Torquay	11	4	4	3	3	16
14	Chelmsford City	10	2	8	0	6	14
15	Horsham	11	3	5	3	-1	14
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	12	3	5	4	-1	14
17	Farnborough	11	4	2	5	-7	14
18	Maidenhead	12	3	4	5	-1	13
19	Chesham United	11	3	1	7	-8	10
20	Braintree	11	3	1	7	-9	10
21	AFC Totton	12	3	1	8	-14	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	2	2	7	-15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	2	2	7	-17	8
24	Slough Town	12	1	1	10	-19	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Salisbury win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.