Salon urheilupuisto · Analysis updated 21:43 UTC
SalPa vs JJK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for SalPa and 1.98 for JJK, a combined total of 4.86. That distribution gives SalPa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SalPa win
56.8% probability
Expected goals
2.88 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
JJK away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SalPa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 17% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.88 goals for SalPa and 1.98 for JJK, a combined 4.86 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 86% and both teams to score at 81%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.4%
- 2–26.3%
- 3–16.1%
- 3–26.0%
- 1–14.4%
Recent form
SalPa
JJK
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tampere United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs OLS · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SalPa · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs KPV-j · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T15:30:00.000Z · A vs PKKU · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ykkönen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampere United | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 33 | 54 |
| 2 | Rops | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 48 |
| 3 | SalPa | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 48 |
| 4 | VJS | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 46 |
| 5 | OLS | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | FC jazz | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 40 |
| 7 | PKKU | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 38 |
| 8 | JJK | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 34 |
| 9 | Inter Turku II | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | -9 | 30 |
| 10 | TPV | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | -10 | 30 |
| 11 | KPV-j | 27 | 5 | 4 | 18 | -52 | 19 |
| 12 | KuPS Akatemia | 27 | 3 | 7 | 17 | -21 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SalPa win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.