· Analysis updated 17:04 UTC
Sama Al Sarhan vs Al Hussein Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Sama Al Sarhan and 2.60 for Al Hussein, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Al Hussein the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Hussein win
79.7% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 2.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sama Al Sarhan home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Hussein away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Hussein to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 7% / 14% / 80% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Sama Al Sarhan and 2.60 for Al Hussein, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.4%
- 0–311.6%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–28.4%
- 0–47.6%
Recent form
Sama Al Sarhan
- 2026-05-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ordon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hussein · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ramtha · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hussein · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli · 2-3 (L)
Al Hussein
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ordon · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs East Bengal II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Buqa'a · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Jazeera · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Faisaly · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · Sama Al Sarhan 0-2 Al Hussein (League)
- 2026-04-23T16:00:00.000Z · Sama Al Sarhan 0-4 Al Hussein (League)
- 2025-10-25T16:30:00.000Z · Sama Al Sarhan 0-4 Al Hussein (League)
- 2025-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · Sama Al Sarhan 0-1 Al Hussein (Shield Cup)
League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Faisaly | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Al Ramtha | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Buqa'a | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Al Jazeera | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| 5 | Al Wihdat | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Al Hussein | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 7 | Al Salt | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Doqarah | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | Shabab Al Ordon | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Hussein win, at 79.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.