· Analysis updated 16:20 UTC
Sama Al Sarhan vs Al Wihdat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Sama Al Sarhan and 1.95 for Al Wihdat, a combined total of 2.87. That distribution gives Al Wihdat the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Wihdat win
61.3% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sama Al Sarhan home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Wihdat away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Wihdat to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 17% / 22% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Sama Al Sarhan and 1.95 for Al Wihdat, a combined 2.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.0%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–37.0%
Recent form
Sama Al Sarhan
- 2026-05-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ordon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hussein · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ramtha · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hussein · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli · 2-3 (L)
Al Wihdat
- 2026-05-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Hussein · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Salt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Jazeera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Salt · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Faisaly | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Jazeera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Wihdat | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Al Buqa'a | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Al Ramtha | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 8 |
| 6 | Al Salt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Al Hussein | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 8 | Al Arabi | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 9 | Doqarah | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 10 | Shabab Al Ordon | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Wihdat win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.